Since you haven't been seen for a long time, the dollar and the euro are at parity in the financial market and in exchange offices. Last Wednesday (13/07), the European currency was worth less than the American one and at the moment the difference is only 0,07: £ 1 euro a R$ 5,45 e U$ 1 dollar to R$ 5,38 (18/07 at 09:11 Brasília time).
From 2022 European currency trading did not register such a low level, with a drop of almost 12%. The global political and economic scenario favors the meeting between currencies. The possible recession in the United States caused the American Central Bank to increase interest rates.
Like this, the fall of the euro occurred after the announcement that inflation had risen 1,3% in June, accumulating 9,1% em 12 months. This is the biggest advance in 40 years, which was registered in November 1981. Nonetheless, on the other hand, the war between Ukraine and Russia and the post-pandemic effects continue to devalue the euro against the market.
No expected changes
The forecast, although, is that the American scenario continues the way it is. Or, at least, that the euro will take time to gain strength against the dollar. The market expectation is that the United States will continue to increase interest rates. The estimate is an increase of 0,75 percentage point by the end of this month.
Being considered the most valued and safest currency in the world, a higher interest rate framework makes US assets more attractive. In a statement, the president of the United States, Joe Biden, stated that inflation this June is “unacceptably high”.
Nonetheless, These numbers would be out of date due to the drop in gasoline prices.
The perfect conditions
This entire scenario would be the consequence of a set of economic and political factors that intersected simultaneously. Like this, Global experts point to the difference in stance between central banks as a good reason for parity (Federal Reserve and European Central Bank) in relation to monetary tightening, the energy supply shock, the war in Ukraine and the dollar's traditional position of refuge in the face of instability.
Although the meeting of these variables is something specific,, even so, its effects may be noticeable for a long time to come in the market as a whole
